The post-World War Two US economic boom up to the late 1950s is generally either considered as the golden age of America or the start of when things went so wrong that only radical change could/can fix them. But what each perspective takes for granted is that a major reason for this remarkable era was that the US shifted from being a primarily exporting nation to a consuming nation of its own goods. Flash-forward and back to today, and China seems to be going through the very same transformation before its own and the world's eyes. What will this change entail?
"China’s economnic structure is currently changing, and is gradually shifting to a development model which is led by domestic consumption." The shift has several important causes and even more important implications, according to Li Dao-kui, the chairman of the finance department of the School of Economics and Management of Qinghua University and others. Recognizing declines in exports due to the global recession, the government has taken active measures to make up for it from within. To what extent this intra-emerging market will be open to international competition remains unclear.
Perhaps with extreme danger both domestically and globally by mimicking the disaster in US loan practices, the government may allow individuals to obtain guarantee-free loans of five times their own salary from banks. There is debate as to whether this is a long-term strategy or a short-term one designed to counteract the recession, but in any case "opening internal markets" (i.e., from coast to inland) may benefit few other countries than China itself to the tune of over 1 billion people. So? The difficulty in conceiving the magnitude of this shift is surpassed only by that of its repercussions.
These new trends, while just recently reaching new peaks, have been in the works for a while, and the cultural as well political implications (to say nothing of the economic) cannot be underestimated. Chinese citizens will widely have conveniences like dishwashers, cars, computers, refrigerators and flat screen TVs for the first time, revolutionizing the way they live. What will become popular in terms of cultural commodities (art, music, video, etc.) may become so for the rest of the world to the same degree as Elvis did in the 1950s, revolutionizing not only what's cool but also why it is: it's Chinese.
China as the next great consumer society-- even the greatest ever, barring competition with India-- is without doubt something to watch closely as a current event creating a future in which there may be much more, or much less, to consume. Place your bets.
